Election 2024 live updates: Follow our coverage of Trump and Harris on Election Day.
According to The New York Times and Siena College polls, Vice President Kamala Harris is showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia, while former President Donald J. Trump has erased her lead in Pennsylvania and maintained his advantage in Arizona.
According to surveys, Ms. Harris currently has a slight lead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Mr. Trump leads in Arizona. Polls show them in close contests in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. However, the findings in all seven states fall within the range of sampling error, indicating that neither candidate has a clear lead in any of them.
Both candidates have several paths to obtaining the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory, assuming that polls do not significantly underestimate support for one or the other. In such a close election, even a minor systematic polling error might swing the vote substantially in either direction.
However, there are hints that late decision-makers are siding with Ms. Harris: She leads the 8 percent of respondents who claimed they had only recently decided on their vote, 55 percent to 44 percent. As Election Day approached, 11 percent of voters were uncertain or persuadable, down from 16 percent a month previously. The polling comes after more than 70 million Americans voted, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
Approximately 40% of those polled by the Times/Siena throughout the seven states reported voting. According to the surveys, Ms. Harris won these voters by eight percentage points. Mr. Trump has an advantage among voters who say they intend to vote but have not yet done so.
Mr. Trump has been making gains in Pennsylvania, where Ms. Harris had held a four-point lead in all previous New York Times/Siena College polls since entering the race. The race is now deadlocked, indicating a more close struggle in the state, which strategists from both parties say might swing the election.
How Do Polls in the Rust Belt States Compare?
William Renfro, a Las Vegas-based electrical utilities student and part-time barista, identified himself as a libertarian. “Fiscally, I’m more conservative,” he told me. “Socially, I’m more liberal.”
He claimed that he was worried by Mr. Trump’s harsh remarks, appearances with far-right activist Laura Loomer, and spreading lies about Haitian migrants in Ohio devouring dogs and cats, which is why he had chosen to back Ms. Harris. However, he added, “It is really, ‘Why do I want this guy to run the country that I live in?'” after hearing about Laura Loomer and the Haitian migrants in Ohio.
Early voting is especially popular in North Carolina, where more than half of voters reported having cast a ballot. Ms. Harris leads early voters in the state by 8 percentage points, which may account for her three-point advantage in the state poll. Despite the recent devastation caused by Hurricane Helene, more than nine out of ten North Carolina voters reported that the storm and its aftermath did not affect their capacity to vote.
Mr. Trump won the poll in Arizona, the only state where individuals reported they had already voted. 46% of voters said they had already voted, and Mr. Trump carried that group by 50 to 46 percent.
The polls also show that voters’ priorities are shifting as the election nears its end. The economy remains their number one concern, but in areas like Wisconsin, where Ms. Harris has maintained a constant lead, abortion now nearly equals the economy as voters’ most significant issue. Immigration is also becoming a major factor in voters’ decisions in Arizona, where Mr. Trump leads.
How do polls in the Sun Belt States compare?
Dakota Parrish, 31, who works at an insurance firm, said he supports Mr. Trump because he believes the country was more prosperous while he was president.
“It is not really about Donald Trump as a person in this case,” said Mr. Parrish, who resides in Surprise, Arizona. “People could afford more and live happier lives because of the measures that were implemented.”
According to the survey, Mr. Trump has retained the core of the coalition that supported him in his previous two presidential campaigns—white voters who did not attend college and men—while increasing his support among younger, nonwhite, and newer voters. He is outperforming his 2020 vote share in Arizona and Michigan, two states he did not win four years ago.
Ms. Harris lags behind President Biden’s 2020 performance among younger voters, Black voters, particularly Black women, and Latino voters. However, she has improved on his performance in these groups since he withdrew from the race in July.
The gender disparity remained huge across all seven states, with women favoring Ms. Harris and men favoring Mr. Trump. Abortion has surpassed the economy as the most important issue motivating voting turnout among women and young people.
The battle for the Senate
Along with the presidential campaign, the struggle for Senate control has become increasingly competitive. Among all three Northern “blue wall” states, the Democratic lead is significantly reduced in the last days of the campaign.
In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat, leads by five points, down from nine in September. In Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, leads by four percentage points, down from eight in September.
And in the race for Michigan’s open seat, Democrat Elissa Slotkin and her Republican opponent, former Representative Mike Rogers, are neck and neck.
Democratic candidates have a firmer handle in the Sun Belt battles, with Representative Ruben Gallego leading Kari Lake in Arizona by five percentage points and Senator Jacky Rosen leading Republican challenger Sam Brown in Nevada by nine points.
The fact that all the Democratic Senate candidates are exceeding Ms. Harris suggests that a potentially significant portion of voters would divide their ballots and support both Mr. Trump and the state’s Democratic Senate candidate.
Phoenix Republican Georgia Micola von Fürstenrecht said she had voted for both Mr. Gallego and Mr. Trump because she did not like the Republican nominee, Ms. Lake.
“The lady is insane. ‘I come from a military family, and Ruben Gallego served as a U.S. Marine,’ said Mrs. Micola von Fürstenrecht, 60. ‘Despite any mistakes, I’d trust him with my life over hers. She’s completely indifferent.'”
Republicans will take over a seat in West Virginia when Senator Joe Manchin III, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, retires. Democrats currently hold a 51-seat Senate majority.
Democrats must hold onto seats in five key races, including Ohio and Montana, to maintain Senate control, according to New York Times polling averages. Despite being a long shot, recent polling shows Democrat Colin Allred may have a chance to unseat Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
In North Carolina, Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, who has a history of making unpleasant remarks, is trailing Democratic rival Josh Stein by a significant 17 percentage points.
Abortion on the ballot
Most men and women in Arizona and Nevada support proposals that would enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions.
In Nevada, where 64% of voters approve an amendment to the state constitution, support for such a proposition is noticeably higher. A similar amendment is supported by 55% of Arizona voters.
Since the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade, the ruling that established a constitutional right to an abortion, voters have supported abortion rights in each of the seven states where the issue has been on the ballot.
Voters in conservative states like Kansas and Kentucky support abortion rights, but support never exceeds 60 percent.
Henderson, Nevada, real estate salesperson Linda Guggia, 46, stated that she supported her state’s abortion rights amendment. She did, however, vote for Mr. Trump because she thinks he will be more robust on economic matters.
That is not a major topic of discussion in my household at the moment. “You know I have a son?” she asked, alluding to the right to an abortion. “While it may not be significant, I do appreciate and recognize other women’s rights.”
How were these polls conducted?
The following are the salient features of these Siena College and New York Times polls:
- From October 24 to November 2, interviewers surveyed 7,879 likely voters in seven battleground states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Live interviewers take polls over the phone in both Spanish and English at Times/Siena. For these surveys, a total of over 98 percent of participants take part via cell phone.
- A list of registered voters, with demographic details, helps ensure we reach the right number of voters from each party, race, and region. Over 320,000 voters contact each other in about 850,000 calls for these surveys.
- We give extra weight to underrepresented groups, like those without a college degree. In this way, we ensure our results reflect the full voting population, not just those willing to participate. For more details, see “Composition of the Sample” in the methodology section.
- The margin of error is ±3.5 points for each state survey, or ±1.3 points for the battleground states. The margin doubles when calculating the difference between candidates’ leads.
The 2024 Pennsylvania Times/Siena surveys, funded by the Lenfest Institute for Journalism, partnered with the Philadelphia Inquirer. The institute had no involvement in the design or execution of the survey.
Complete results and a thorough methodology are available here. You can view answers to frequently asked questions if you would like to learn more about polls.
